Grondexploitaties en projectontwikkelingen

Bij berekeningen voor grondexploitaties en projectontwikkelingen – waarbij inzicht noodzakelijk is in toekomstige grondwaarden – kan men niet volstaan met simpelweg de huidige grondwaarde te nemen en die te indexeren. Residueel rekenen is bij dergelijke berekeningen noodzakelijk. Voor het bepalen van de opbrengsten op een zeker tijdstip kan men zowel de BAR-methode als de DCF-methode gebruiken. Men dient zich dan wel bewust zijn van het eerder genoemde verschil tussen een BAR en een DCF-benadering: BAR gaat over prijsvorming op de markt, DCF gaat over de visie van een belegger op vastgoed. Bij residueel berekenen van een grondwaarde geldt dat de grondwaarde gelijk is aan de waarde van het object verminderd met alle stichtingskosten behalve de grond. De waarde is per definitie op het vergaderruimte huren eindhoven tijdstip van oplevering. Huren moeten daarom geïndexeerd worden naar dit tijdstip bij huurobjecten. De bouwkosten indexeert men tot het moment van start bouw. Tijdens het bouwproces vinden geen stijgingen meer plaats, prijsstijgingen zijn afgekocht, en in de bouwkosten is de rente tijdens de bouw al opgenomen. Situatie Een projectontwikkelaar wil op een locatie inschrijven waar een kantoorpand kan worden ontwikkeld. Hij wil weten wat hij gegeven zijn verwachtingen van de opbrengsten en de schatting van de bouwkosten, voor de grond kan betalen. Uitgangspunten – Markthuur: € 200 op peildatum, per m2 VVO, jaarlijks stijgend met de inflatie – Vormfactor: 0,85 VVO/BVO – Peildatum: 2010 peildatum is 1 januari van dit jaar – Bouwtijd: 2 jaar – Voorbereidingstijd tot start bouw: 2 jaar vanaf peildatum – Bouwkosten: € 1 .750 op peildatum per m2 BVO turnkey – Rente op grond: 7,0% per jaar – Inflatie: 2,5% per jaar – Stijging bouwkosten: 3,0% per jaar – BAR: 7,0% – Winstmarge ontwikkelaar: 5,0% voor vraag B – Turnkey houdt in alle bouwkosten inclusief afkoop prijsstijgingen tijdens de bouw, rente vergaderruimte huren den haag op de bouw en bijkomende kosten, bijkomende kosten, algemene kosten, winst. Is in feite de stichtingskosten all-in exclusief grond. HOOFDSTUK 7 – VRAAGSTUKKEN 217 Vragen A Wat kan de projectontwikkelaar economisch verantwoord maximaal bij start bouw voor de grond betalen per m2 BVO? B Vaak wordt bij residuele berekeningen de opbrengst geïndexeerd naar start bouw in plaats van naar tijdstip oplevering. Wat kan de projectontwikkelaar gegeven deze rekenwijze nu per m2 BVO voor de grond betalen? Hoe verhoudt dit bedrag zich tot het onder A gevonden bedrag? C Tijdens onderhandelingen stelt de ontwikkelaar dat de vergaderruimte huren haarlem markthuur bij start bouw genomen moet worden. Zijn argument is dat hij voor start bouw al gaat voorverhuren, d.w.z. dan al een contract afsluit. Hoe beoordeelt u het standpunt van de ontwikkelaar? D Stel dat het project over t jaar met de bouw start, en de bouwtijd is bt. Over welke tijdsperiode moet dan de opbrengst (markthuur) worden geïndexeerd? Over welke periode moeten de bouwkosten worden geïndexeerd? E Er zijn vaak problemen met de definitie van grondquote. 1. Wat is de grondquote, indien gesteld wordt dat de grondquote geldt bij oplevering? 2. Wat is de grondquote indien gesteld wordt dat de grond bij uitgifte (start bouw) wordt vergaderruimte huren tilburg gerelateerd aan de waarde bij oplevering? 3. Wat is de grondquote indien gesteld wordt dat de grond bij uitgifte wordt gerelateerd aan de waarde bij uitgifte? (Een manier van berekenen die we in de planeconomie vaak tegenkomen). F Dat er definitieproblemen bestaan wordt duidelijk bij deze vraag. Stel dat het gebouw een complex multifunctioneel gebouw is met een bouwtijd van 4 in plaats van 2 jaar. Wat zijn dan de grondquotes zoals onder El en E2 gedefinieerd?

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