Risico waarderen

Risico waarderen Voor we over gaan tot het verder waarderen van risico’s moeten we eerst het project zo modelleren dat we de gevolgen van een risico kunnen berekenen. Dat betekent dat het model de parameters moet bevatten die het risico sturen en dat het flexplek huren eindhoven model één of meerdere verwachte resultaten berekent. Bij een belegging is een model betrekkelijk eenvoudig, bij gebiedsexploitaties kan het complex zijn. Factoren als vertraging of versnelling spelen een rol. Als er meerdere varianten zijn voor een gebied, die bijvoorbeeld afhankelijk zijn van de kans dat een procedure slaagt, dan werken we elke variant afzonderlijk uit en gebruiken DTA om het totaal resultaat te bezien. Het model gebruiken we vervolgens om een eerste schatting van risico’s te maken en het effect van beheersmaatregelen nauwkeuriger vast te stellen. Het model kunnen we ook gebruiken om het totale risico van een flexplek huren den haag project in kaart te brengen. We behandelen een aantal technieken die we hiervoor gebruiken. Gevoeligheidsanalyse Een gevoeligheidsanalyse laat de invloed zien van verschillende variabelen op een verwacht resultaat. De meest eenvoudige gevoeligheidsanalyses zijn gebaseerd op het ceteris paribus principe. Ceteris paribus betekent ‘al het overige gelijkblijvend’. We bestuderen het effect HOOFDSTUK 6 – SPECIALE ONDERWERPEN 163 van verschillende waarden voor één variabele op een verwacht resultaat. Zo kunnen we zien wat verschillende percentages leegstand voor een effect hebben op de waarde van een belegging of wat het gevolg is van vertraging op een gebiedsexploitatie. Deze methode wordt ook toegepast om break-even punten te bepalen zoals bij welk percentage leegstand kan niet meer worden voldaan aan financieringsverplichtingen, of bij welke huurniveau is het rendement gelijk aan de rendementseis. Vervolgens kunnen we de waarschijnlijkheid van de aanname flexplek huren haarlem toetsen. De ceteris paribus benadering heeft als nadeel dat we de verschillende variabelen niet in hun onderlinge samenhang bezien. Een hogere inflatie gaat gepaard met een hogere nominale rente. Als we rekening willen houden met de relatie tussen variabelen dan zullen we of deze relatie in ons model flexplek huren tilburg moet uitwerken of onze toevlucht moeten zoeken tot hulpmiddelen als Crystal Bali en @Risk. Met deze programma’s kan de relatie tussen variabelen worden gedefinieerd en kunnen we vervolgens de gevoeligheid van een reeks van variabelen berekenen.

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