Een risicobeleid

Een risicobeleid dat afzonderlijke beslissingen samenbundelt tot één geheel, komt overeen met de externe visie op planningsproblemen die ik eerder heb besproken. Het externe gezichtspunt verschuift de aandacht van de specifieke bijzonderheden van kantoor huren eindhoven de situatie die aan de orde is, naar de gegevens van uitkomsten in overeenkomstige situaties. Het externe gezichtspunt is een breed kader voor denken over plannen. Een risicobeleid is een breed kader dat een bepaalde riskante keuze onderbrengt in een verzameling van soortgelijke keuzen. Het externe gezichtspunt en het risicobeleid zijn remedies tegen twee duidelijke vormen van bias die op veel beslissingen van invloed zijn: het overdreven optimisme van de planningsfout en overdreven voorzichtigheid vanwege afkeer van verlies. Deze twee vormen van bias staan tegenover elkaar. Overdreven optimisme beschermt individuen en kantoor huren den haag organisaties tegen de verlammende effecten van afkeer van verlies; afkeer van verlies beschermt ze tegen de dwaasheden van overmatig optimisme. Het gecombineerde resultaat kan de beslisser enige gemoedsrust meegeven. Optimisten geloven dat de beslissingen die ze nemen, voorzichtiger zijn dan ze in werkelijkheid zijn, en beslissers met een afkeer van verlies wijzen op goede gronden riskante proposities af die ze anders misschien zouden accepteren. Er is natuurlijk geen garantie dat de twee vormen van bias elkaar in elke situatie zullen uitschakelen. Een organisatie die zowel buitensporig optimisme als een buitensporige afkeer van verlies uit de weg kan ruimen, moet dat zeker doen. Het doel zou moeten zijn het externe gezichtspunt met een risicobeleid te combineren. Richard Thaler vertelt over een gesprek over besluitvorming dat hij had met de kantoor huren haarlem topmanagers van de 25 divisies van een grote onderneming. Hij vroeg hen een riskante optie onder ogen te zien waarbij ze, met gelijke waarschijnlijkheden, een grote hoeveelheid van het kapitaal onder hun hoede konden verspelen, of het dubbele van die hoeveelheid verdienen. Geen van de managers was bereid op zo’n gevaarlijke gok in te gaan. Vervolgens richtte Thaler zich tot de ceo van de onderneming, die ook aanwezig was, en vroeg hem naar zijn mening. Zonder aarzelen antwoordde de ceo: ‘Ik zou willen dat ze allemaal hun risico zouden nemen.’ In de context van dat gesprek was het begrijpelijk dat de ceo het voorgelegde probleem bekeek vanuit een breed kader dat alle 25 weddenschappen omvat. Net als in het geval van Sam toen hem werd kantoor huren tilburg voorgesteld honderd keer kop of munt te gooien, kon hij zich oriënteren op een cijfermatige samenbundeling om het algehele risico te matigen.

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