Een heuristische procedure

Zoals elke scrabblespeler weet, is het veel gemakkelijker om op woorden te komen die met een bepaalde letter beginnen dan woorden te vinden die diezelfde letter in de derde positie flexplek huren eindhoven hebben. Dit geldt voor alle letters van het alfabet. Daarom was onze verwachting dat respondenten de fre­quentie van letters in de eerste positie zouden overdrijven, zelfs van letters (zoals K, L, N, R en V) die vaker in de derde positie voorkomen. Ook in een dergelijk geval leidt het gebruik van een heuristische procedure tot een voorspelbare bias bij de oordeelsvorming. Kortgeleden ben ik bijvoor­beeld gaan twijfelen aan mijn lang gevestigde indruk dat overspel vaker voorkomt bij politici dan flexplek huren den haag bij natuurkundigen of juristen. Ik had voor dit ‘feit’ zelfs verklaringen opgesteld, waaronder het erotiserende effect van macht en de verleidingen van een leven weg van huis. Uiteindelijk besefte ik dat de uitstapjes van politici veel vaker gemeld worden dan die van juristen en artsen. Mijn intuïtieve indruk kon volledig veroorzaakt zijn door inhoudelijke voorkeuren van journalisten en door mijn gebruik van de beschikbaarheidsheuristiek.

Amos en ik hadden er verscheidene jaren voor nodig om de bias van intuïtief denken bij verschillende taken te onderzoeken en vast te leggen, zoals bij het toekennen van waarschijnlijkheden aan gebeurtenissen, het voorspellen van de toekomst, het beoordelen van hypotheses en het in­schatten van frequenties. In het vijfde jaar van onze samenwerking pre­senteerden we onze uitkomsten in het tijdschrift Science, dat door we­tenschappers van veel verschillende flexplek huren haarlem disciplines gelezen wordt. Dit artikel (dat aan het einde van dit boek integraal is opgenomen) was getiteld ‘Besluitvorming in onzekerheid: heuristiek en biases’. Het beschreef de kortsluitingen die we met intuïtief denken maken en gaf een verklaring voor een twintigtal vormen van biases waarin deze kortsluitingen tot uiting komen, om de rol van heuristieken bij onze besluitvorming te demonstreren.

Wetenschapshistorici hebben vaak opgemerkt dat wetenschappers bin­nen hetzelfde onderzoeksterrein in een bepaalde periode fundamentele opvattingen over hun discipline met elkaar delen. Sociale wetenschappers vormen hierop geen uitzondering omdat ze zich bij hun beschouwingen over specifiek gedrag baseren op een visie op de menselijke natuur die zelf maar zelden ter discussie wordt gesteld. In de jaren zeventig van de vo­rige eeuw accepteerden sociale wetenschappers breed genomen twee ideeën over de flexplek huren tilburg menselijke natuur. Ten eerste dat mensen over het algemeen rationeel zijn en dat hun denken normaliter deugdelijk verloopt. En ten tweede dat emoties als angst, liefde en haat de meeste situaties verklaren waarin mensen hun rationaliteit laten schieten. Ons artikel stelde beide veronderstellingen ter discussie zonder ze direct te bespreken: we gaven voorbeelden van stelselmatige fouten in het denken van normale mensen

 

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