De obstakels

Een van de obstakels die Galton moest wegnemen, was het probleem van het meten van regressie tussen variabelen die op verschillende schalen worden gemeten, bijvoorbeeld gewicht en kwaliteit van pianospel. Dit kan door de populatie als kantoor huren eindhoven referentiepunt te nemen. Stel dat het gewicht en pianospel gemeten zijn van honderd kinderen in alle klassen van de basisschool en dat beide van hoog naar laag zijn gerangschikt. Als Jane 3e staat wat betreft pianospel en 27ste wat betreft gewicht, kunnen we stellen dat ze een beter pianospeelster is dan dat ze lang is. Laten we enkele aannames maken die een en ander kunnen vereenvoudigen: Op elke willekeurige leeftijd: • is de kwaliteit van het pianospel alleen afhankelijk van het wekelijks aantal geoefende uren; • is gewicht alleen afhankelijk van het aantal geconsumeerde ijsjes; • zijn de consumptie van ijs en het wekelijks aantal kantoor huren den haag geoefende uren nietgerelateerd.
Met behulp van rangposities (of standaardscores, geprefereerd door statistici)2 kunnen we nu enkele vergelijkingen formuleren:
Gewicht = Leeftijd + I]sconsumptie Pianospel = Leeftijd + Wekelijks aantal geoefende uren
U ziet dat regressie naar het gemiddelde plaatsvindt als we pianospel op basis van gewicht voorspellen of gewicht op basis van pianospel. Als we alleen over Tom weten dat hij 12e staat wat betreft gewicht (bovengemiddeld), kunnen we (statistisch) afleiden dat hij waarschijnlijk ouder is dan gemiddeld en ook dat hij waarschijnlijk meer ijsjes eet dan andere kinderen. Als we van Barbara weten dat ze 58ste staat wat betreft pianospel (ver onder het gemiddelde in de groep), kunnen we concluderen dat ze waarschijnlijk erg jong is en ook dat ze waarschijnlijk minder oefent dan kantoor huren haarlem andere kinderen.
190 Deel Il – Heuristieken en biases
De correlatiecoëfficiënt tussen twee maatstaven, die tussen o en r schommelt, is een maatstaf voor het relatieve gewicht van de gedeelde factoren. Zo delen we bijvoorbeeld de helft van onze genen met een van onze ouders en voor persoonskenmerken waarop omgevingsfactoren weinig invloed hebben (zoals lengte) zal de correlatie tussen ouder en kind niet sterk afwijken van 0,50.3 Hierna vindt u enkele voorbeelden van coëfficiënten, zodat u het belang ervan beter kunt inschatten. • De correlatie tussen de omvang van objecten die met hoge precisie in een bepaalde eenheid zijn gemeten, bedraagt r. Factoren die de ene maatstaf beïnvloeden, beïnvloeden ook de andere; roo procent van de bepalende factoren wordt gedeeld. • De correlatie tussen (zelfgemeten) gewicht en lengte onder Amerikaanse mannen bedraagt o,4r.4 Als we vrouwen en kinderen meenemen, zou de correlatie hoger worden, aangezien geslacht en leeftijd zowel lengte als gewicht beïnvloeden; het relatieve belang van de gedeelde factoren wordt dus groter. • De correlatie kantoor huren tilburg tussen het cijfergemiddelde op de middelbare school en de universiteit bedraagt ongeveer 0,60. De correlatie tussen geschiktheidstests en universiteit is echter een stuk lager, vooral omdat de gemeten geschiktheid in deze groep nauwelijks varieert. Als iedereen dezelfde geschiktheid heeft, zullen verschillen in deze maatstaf geen grote rol spelen bij het bepalen van succes. • De correlatie tussen inkomen en opleidingsniveau in de Verenigde Staten bedraagt ongeveer 0,40.5 • De correlatie tussen gezinsinkomen en de laatste vier cijfers van hun telefoonnummer is o.

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